How Often Are Financial News Sources Right?
We check the tone of every headline against the later price move — and compare each source with chance.
By source (all horizons)
| # | Source | Hit rate | Chance | Vs. chance (95 % interval) | Verdict | Checked reports |
|---|
Our Methodology
AI classifies each article's tone as up, down or sideways for the market it covers. From the first price a reader could trade after publication we check the move after 1, 3 and 7 days. A source's hit rate is compared with chance for the same calls and outcomes within each market, so covering calm or busy markets earns nothing. Each difference comes with a 95 % interval; checks close in time are resampled together in blocks of 7 or 14 days, because they share market moves. A verdict needs at least 300 checks and must hold after correcting for the number of sources tested (Holm). This answers "did the market move that way?": a hit rate, not a return. AIamond makes no forecasts of its own.
Changes to how these numbers are measured, and mistakes we found in the data, are listed in the change log.