# AIamond source record — method v1

Registered: 2026-11-03. Operator: Lennart Schreiber, aiamond.com (imprint: https://aiamond.com/imprint).
This file is published unchanged at https://aiamond.com/method/source-record-v1.md. Its SHA-256 is printed on
https://aiamond.com/how-reliable-is and in the change log (https://aiamond.com/changelog). Any change to this method is a
new file with a new version number; this one is never edited.

## Question

How often did the market move the way a news source's article pointed, measured from the first price a reader of the
article could have traded, and is that more often than chance for the same mix of calls?

This answers "did the market move that way?" (a descriptive question) from a tradable start. It is a hit rate, not a
return: it says nothing about the size of a move, costs or profit, so it does not answer "could a reader gain by
acting?". AIamond makes no forecasts of its own.

## Data

- One **check** is one article-based report and one horizon. Horizons: 1, 3 and 7 trading days (for crypto and
  currencies 1, 3 and 7 periods of 24 hours).
- A language model reads the article and labels the market it is about and its tone from −1 to +1. Tone above +0.25 is
  a call "up", below −0.25 a call "down", anything in between "sideways".
- The price move is measured from the first tradable price after the article's publication time (`start_kind =
  tradable`). Rows still measured from the previous close (`legacy`) are excluded.
- The move counts as "up" or "down" when it exceeds 0.2 % × √days, otherwise "sideways". A check is a **hit** when the
  call matches the move.
- Only sources with an admitted rights record are included: rights status `admitted`, `permitted` or `grandfathered`,
  and a publisher kind (official body, news agency, editorial news, specialist press, crypto editorial; kind unknown
  only when grandfathered). Aggregators, press-release wires, recommendation services and user-posts platforms are
  excluded, and so are sources whose content was deleted.

## Statistics per cell

A cell is a group of checks: one source with all horizons pooled, one source and one horizon, one bundle of sources
(by kind or by language) and one horizon, or all sources and one horizon (the headline).

- **Hit rate** = hits / checks.
- **Chance** = P(says up)·P(went up) + P(says down)·P(went down) + P(says sideways)·P(stayed sideways), computed from the
  cell's own shares: the rate the same calls would reach if they were shuffled against the same outcomes.
- **Edge** = hit rate − chance, in percentage points.
- **Interval**: checks close in time share market moves (the same day, and for longer horizons overlapping price
  windows), so they are not independent. The resampling unit is therefore a block of calendar days (UTC, by article
  publication time), counted from Monday 2020-01-06: 7 days for the 1- and 3-day horizons, 14 days for the 7-day
  horizon and for all horizons pooled. 2,000 bootstrap draws of blocks with replacement (fixed seed 20261103) give the
  standard error of the edge; the 95 % interval is edge ± 1.96 × that standard error.
- **p-value**: two-sided, from z = edge / standard error under the normal approximation. A standard error of zero
  gives p = 1 (no verdict other than "not distinguishable").
- **Detection limit**: 2.80 × standard error, the smallest edge this cell could show with 80 % power at the 5 % level
  (before correction).

## Which cells get a rate, and the verdict

- A cell with fewer than **300 checks**, or whose checks fall into fewer than 5 blocks, gets the verdict "too few data"
  and no rate is published for it; its number of checks is still shown.
- No published number may reveal a withheld rate by subtraction. So a source's three horizon cells carry rates only
  when all three have a rate (otherwise only its pooled cell can), and the headline and the bundles count only sources
  whose three horizon cells all carry rates.
- **Multiple testing**: within each family the p-values of the cells with a rate are corrected with the Holm method.
  Families: (A) sources with all horizons pooled, (B) sources × horizon, (C) bundles × horizon, (D) the headline, all
  sources × horizon.
- Verdict: **better than chance** when the Holm-adjusted p-value is below 0.05 and the edge is positive; **worse than
  chance** when it is below 0.05 and the edge is negative; otherwise **not distinguishable from chance**.
- The headline is family D.

## Limits

Daily and hourly bars, one symbol per market; the model's labels agree with human readers in about 75–80 % of cases
(a guess, not measured on this data); older reports were not all forward-looking (59 % in a sample of 800). Blocks
do not remove all dependence: checks at the end of one block and the start of the next can still share moves. A
source that is "not distinguishable from chance" may still be better or worse than chance by less than its detection
limit.

## Corrections and right of reply

Errors and replies from a named source: info@aiamond.com. Corrections are listed in the change log.